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Walton vs Bellucci — Shanghai R1 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
Adam Walton
- 🚀 North American surge: Los Cabos SF + win over Medvedev (Cincinnati) → career-high #75.
- 🧭 Asia familiarity: years of Challenger reps in East Asia; Shanghai MD debut this week.
- 🥶 Asian swing so far: L to Korda (Hangzhou R1), L to Sakamoto (Tokyo qualies).
- 📊 2025: 34–28 overall; 31–21 on hard.
Mattia Bellucci
- 🎯 Big scalps in Rotterdam run (d. Tsitsipas, Medvedev; SF).
- 📉 Volatile season: 23–27 overall; mid-year 9-match skid.
- 🏟️ Masters trend: Shanghai R2 (2024) as a qualifier, then 0–5 in MD R1 at Masters since.
- ✋ Lefty patterns give early-strike upside, but hold consistency wavers on hard (9–12 in 2025).
🔍 Match Breakdown
First-strike vs stability: Bellucci’s lefty serve patterns + early FH takeaways can produce mini-runs; Walton’s compact backhand and crosscourt control steady the baseline.
Scoreboard pressure: Walton’s recent top-tier reps (Medvedev/Zverev matches) suggest more resilience in 4–4/5–5 moments.
Form lens: Neither is flying, but Bellucci’s Masters R1 slide + Walton’s regional comfort tilt this toward a grind decided by return games.
🔮 Prediction
Pick: Walton in 3 sets. Very close. If Walton keeps Bellucci’s lefty patterns out of his backhand corner and maintains depth after serve, his big-match seasoning should tell in tiebreak/late-set phases.
Market check: Near pick’em: ~1.98 (Walton) / 1.81 (Bellucci); slight shade to the Aussie.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Adam Walton | Mattia Bellucci | Leans |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W-L (Hard) | 31–21 | 9–12 | Walton |
| Recent Asia form | Losses in Hangzhou/Tokyo qualies | Masters R1 slide since ’24 | Walton (slight) |
| Serve & first-strike | BH compact; depth control after serve | LH patterns, early FH; hold variance | Even (volatility favors Bellucci spurts) |
| Big-match seasoning | Wins/reps vs elite (Medvedev) | High-peak Rotterdam but sporadic | Walton |
| Masters trend | Debut here | 0–5 in MD R1 since Shanghai ’24 | Walton |
| Overall read | Steady baseline, better late-set poise | Hot-and-cold early-strike lefty | Walton 52–54% |
Live-bet cue: If Bellucci is winning >40% of 2nd-serve return points and generating BH cross errors from Walton, lean Bellucci live. Otherwise, target Walton ML at ≥2.05 after any early mini-break against.
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