Monday, May 26, 2025

🎾 Sebastian Ofner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – French Open R1

ATP French Open

🎾 Sebastian Ofner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – French Open R1 Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Sebastian Ofner
📈 Comeback rising: After a late start to 2025 (March return), he has picked up 15 wins in 21 matches. His consistency and stamina on clay are already paying dividends.
🎾 Building week by week: Rome Masters R3 and Geneva SF (as qualifier) show that Ofner is not only fit, but dangerous.
🇫🇷 Roland-Garros comfort: R16 in 2023, R3 in 2024. He’s built a reputation as a serious clay-court threat at Slams.
Jan-Lennard Struff
🆘 Downward spiral: Since the 2024 Paris Olympics, his confidence and results have collapsed—20 losses in his last 27 matches.
🪫 Form desert: 2025 clay swing opened with a 2-6, 1-6 loss to Vacherot in Monte Carlo and was capped with a first-round defeat to Justin Engel in Hamburg.
🏛️ French Open history: 11 appearances with second-week runs in 2019 and 2021, but hasn’t won a match here since.

🔍 Match Breakdown

🛠️ Ofner’s edge: Recent weeks show his baseline endurance, ability to handle long matches, and an upward trajectory in match sharpness—ideal traits for early Slam rounds on clay.
Struff's warning signs: Losses to lower-ranked players, passive play, and an obvious lack of rhythm or mental stability make him a major fade candidate right now.
🏃 Fatigue factor: Back-to-back tournaments could wear on Ofner, but his Geneva run suggests he's physically up to the challenge.

🔮 Prediction

Struff is the more experienced player, but momentum and clay-court confidence are clearly on Ofner's side. Given his recent form and Roland-Garros pedigree, expect the Austrian to overpower an out-of-form Struff in 3 or 4 sets. 🧩 Prediction: Ofner in 4 sets

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