ATP Hamburg – Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hamburg – Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima

🧠 Form & Context

Brandon Nakashima
🧊 Has struggled to find traction on clay—entered the European swing with 12 wins on the year but added just two since April.
🏃 Low momentum, with one of those wins coming in the Bordeaux Challenger (vs. Kukushkin) before falling to Basilashvili.
🌍 Limited European clay exposure—this is his debut in Hamburg and his game remains more suited to faster, lower-bounce conditions.
🔍 Tried to gain dirt familiarity last year with a QF run at the Turin Challenger, but consistent rhythm on clay has remained elusive.

Raphael Collignon
📈 A rising Belgian who recently cracked the ATP Top 100, thanks to consistent Challenger-level performances.
🚪 Earned his spot in Hamburg’s main draw through qualifying—beating Zahraj and Dutra da Silva in straight sets.
🏆 Already claimed his first ATP main-draw win this year in Marrakech over Fabio Fognini, and looks primed to add more.
🌱 Raised on European clay—natural movement, patient rally tolerance, and comfort with sliding give him the stylistic edge.

🔍 Match Breakdown

While Nakashima leads the head-to-head 1–0, that match wasn’t on clay and came before Collignon’s recent ranking surge. Nakashima’s game—built on flat groundstrokes and aggressive court positioning—doesn’t thrive on slower surfaces, where movement and spin control are paramount.

Collignon has the advantage in clay-court instincts and enters with confidence from qualifying. He’ll aim to extend points, disrupt Nakashima’s timing, and test his patience. If the Belgian holds his nerve under pressure and makes this a physical contest, the match could swing his way.

Nakashima still brings more tour-level experience, but if he doesn’t start assertively, Collignon could slowly grind him down.

🔮 Prediction

A classic clash between surface comfort and ATP pedigree. Nakashima might survive with guile and grit—but Collignon is a dangerous opponent if he senses weakness.
🧩 Prediction: Brandon Nakashima in 3 sets — but the upset threat is real if Collignon plays with freedom.