🎾 Alex Michelsen vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

ATP French Open

🎾 Alex Michelsen vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo – Round 1 Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Alex Michelsen
🌍 Clay learning curve: Claimed the Challenger title in Estoril without dropping a set but hasn’t won a main-draw match on European clay this year.
📉 Main tour struggles: Followed up Estoril with two heavy losses, including a 0–6, 3–6 defeat to Laslo Djere in Rome.
🚫 French Open debut woes: Last year, he was handed a brutal draw and was thrashed by De Minaur (1–6, 0–6, 2–6) in R1.
📈 On the rise: Ranked No. 33 and knocking on the door of the top 30, Michelsen has made major strides overall, though clay remains his weakest surface.
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo
🎾 Natural on clay: The 2021 Córdoba champion, known for his crafty lefty game and patience on clay, finally makes his main draw debut at Roland Garros.
🧗 Climbed through qualifying: Beat Onclin, Habib, and Galán to reach the main draw after four straight failed qualifying bids (2021–2024).
🌍 Slower Grand Slam path: Despite being a clay specialist, he played main draws at Wimbledon and US Open before ever cracking the RG main draw.
🧱 Grinder by nature: Lacks explosive weapons but has over 250 career clay wins, with the stamina and strategy to frustrate inexperienced opponents on dirt.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a stylistic clash between raw power and tactical endurance. Michelsen’s serve and flat groundstrokes can do damage, but on slow clay, he’ll have to work much harder to earn points. His lack of comfort in constructing longer rallies puts him at a disadvantage, especially against a player like Cerúndolo, who thrives on dragging opponents into the trenches. Cerúndolo has the court sense, patience, and clay-specific toolkit to exploit Michelsen’s inexperience on the surface. If he targets the American’s movement and keeps depth on his lefty forehand, he could wear Michelsen down across five sets. Still, Michelsen may view Cerúndolo as beatable due to his lack of tour-level pedigree and physical fragility in longer matches.

🔮 Prediction

Michelsen is the higher-ranked player with a better all-around game, but on clay, Juan Manuel Cerúndolo’s edge in comfort, stamina, and strategic depth is hard to overlook—especially in best-of-five. 🧩 Prediction: Cerúndolo in 4 sets. He has the tools to frustrate the American and control the rhythm of the match.